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skip to content liquidity preference providing commentary and cocktails since 2003 menu site navigation blog cocktails about/contact books articles press magic consulting don’t panic: how dynamism and technocracy define the debate over e-cigs yesterday for slate i wrote a long article on current regulations surrounding e-cigarettes, their potential for harm reduction, and teen use of juul and other vapor devices. so naturally this morning the fda announced major changes to its policies and secretive new data. (in an email to my editor this weekend i’d said, “let’s try to run it soon, just because you never know when the fda might announce something that would force re-writes.” i’ve been down this road before.) i’ll use this post to talk about both my article and the new announcement. first, my article in slate . the gist of it: teenage use of e-cigarettes is a legitimate concern to address, but it’s important not to panic. the media’s alarmism obscures a wealth of good public health news: smoking rates are lower than they’ve ever been, they’re dropping fastest among young cohorts, and young adults actually have a better understanding of the relative risks of conventional and electronic cigarettes than do their elders. this is all still accurate and much of the piece expands on this with data. polling among adults shows that beliefs about e-cigarettes are still wildly out of touch with the developing consensus that they are much safer than conventional cigarettes. in addition, many people erroneously believe nicotine to be a primary disease-causing agent in tobacco. media alarmism and the fda’s marketing restrictions both contribute to the spread of this misinformation. i also write a bit about the swedish and norwegian experiences with snus, a form of oral tobacco that imposes fewer risks than both smoking and american-style chewing tobacco. the swedish success is fairly well-known at this point, the norwegian one less so. snus use eclipsed smoking in norway for the first time last year , with the shift in consumption most pronounced in young people. smoking rates in both countries, especially among young cohorts, are now remarkably low. the last part of the article gets into the fundamental approaches to nicotine regulation. the debate is usually portrayed as between two camps: those who want to eliminate nicotine use entirely and those who focus on harm reduction. i suggest that a deeper divide is between technocrats and dynamists, the latter term borrowed from virginia postrel: [allowing] adults to make informed choices about nicotine frightens regulatory gatekeepers. the abstinence-only and harm reductionist camps have different visions for combating smoking, but both believe that their visions should be imposed via legislation or through agencies like the fda. they share a technocratic approach that tolerates change only when it’s tightly managed. as virginia postrel described technocracy in her insightful 1998 book the future and its enemies , “technocrats are ‘for the future,’ but only if someone is in charge of making it turn out to plan.” that there must be a plan is never questioned: “the issue isn’t whether the future should be molded to fit one static ideal. it’s what that static ideal should be. there must be a single blueprint for everyone.” opposition to technologies like juul must be understood in part by the ways that they upset that static vision. technocracy depends on central planning and top-down control. e-cigarettes, in contrast, are all bottom-up and unruly. they arose in vape shops and strip malls hacked by users mixing flavors, components, and nicotine concentrations to meet their individual needs. this messy disorder made room for an evolutionary process that refined innovations that worked and discarded those that didn’t. while no one could have predicted the spectacularly sudden rise of juul in particular, it’s not so surprising that the leading e-cigarette company turns out to be a total newcomer rather than one of the pharmaceutical or tobacco companies that have profited from decades of stasis. which brings us to today’s announcement from fda commissioner scott gottlieb. when he delayed enforcement of the agency’s pre-market review requirements last year, i wrote approvingly that this signaled a lighter touch at the fda that recognized the potential of harm reduction. a year later, armed with new data and perhaps motivated by a summer of media stories about teens addicted to juul, he’s threatening to roll this back : [in] view of the accelerating use among youth, we’re actively considering whether we will enforce the premarket review provision earlier, when it is apparent that these products are now subject to widespread youth use. one factor we’re closely evaluating is the availability of characterizing flavors. we know that the flavors play an important role in driving the youth appeal. and in view of the trends underway, we may take steps to curtail the marketing and selling of flavored products. we’re now actively evaluating how we’d implement such a policy. […] [we’re] seriously reconsidering our compliance dates for the submission of product applications when it is apparent that there’s widespread youth use of the product. we’re especially focused on the flavored e-cigarettes. and we’re seriously considering a policy change that would lead to the immediate removal of these flavored products from the market. in addition, the fda is stepping up enforcement at the retail level and launching a campaign to deter e-cig use among youth. if implemented properly, these latter two initiatives are entirely appropriate responses to youth uptake of e-cigs. juul as a company has also been justifiably criticized for its lifestyle marketing (though the fda makes advertising as a harm reduction tool virtually impossible). but bringing back the agency’s notoriously burdensome pre-market review and banning flavors (which are preferred by many adult users) threatens to undermine the potential of e-cigarettes to reduce conventional smoking. according to dr. gottlieb, this reversal is justified by data that the agency is not ready to make public: we have good reason to draw this conclusion based on the trends and data that we’ve seen, some of which is still preliminary and will be finalized in the coming months and presented publicly. i’m certainly curious to see this data. based on the latest publicly available figures, this is what i wrote for slate: the 2015 national youth tobacco survey, for example, found that nearly 38 percent of high school students had ever tried an e-cigarette. that sounds alarming, but very few of them (2.5 percent) reported regular use —and regular use is particularly rare among non-smoking youth. the latest available figures also suggest that use of e-cigarettes among high schoolers is down from its peak in 2015. that’s no reason to be complacent about teen use of juul or any addictive substance, but the most current data available suggest that nightmare stories of a vaping-to-cigarette pathway are the exception, not the rule. i’d considered adding an obvious disclaimer that the next release of statistics might show youth use increasing again due to the popularity of juul, and in hindsight i wish i’d included it. this morning i asked the fda about both the source of the data and more specifics about what they show, but their press officer was unable to provide any further information so we’re stuck evaluating the fda’s announcement in the dark. if we did have access to the data, i’d want to know the degree to which increases are in experimentation, occasional use, and regular use. what’s notably absent from dr. gottlieb’s remarks is any mention of youth smoking. while teenage use of e-cigarettes or any addictive product is worrisome in itself, the chief fear is that teens who try e-cigs will move on to take up the real thing. unsurprisingly, teens who experiment with one forbidden product are more likely

URL analysis for jacobgrier.com

http://www.jacobgrier.com/blog/archives/category/libertarianism
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http://www.jacobgrier.com/blog/beer-cocktails
http://www.jacobgrier.com/blog/page/163
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http://www.jacobgrier.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/screenshot_20180317-100915.png
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http://www.jacobgrier.com/blog/archives/15106.html

Whois Information

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Domain Name: JACOBGRIER.COM
Registry Domain ID: 76988657_DOMAIN_COM-VRSN
Registrar WHOIS Server: whois.godaddy.com
Registrar URL: http://www.godaddy.com
Updated Date: 2017-09-07T15:56:26Z
Creation Date: 2001-09-07T03:57:04Z
Registry Expiry Date: 2018-09-07T03:57:04Z
Registrar: GoDaddy.com, LLC
Registrar IANA ID: 146
Registrar Abuse Contact Email: [email protected]
Registrar Abuse Contact Phone: 480-624-2505
Domain Status: clientDeleteProhibited https://icann.org/epp#clientDeleteProhibited
Domain Status: clientRenewProhibited https://icann.org/epp#clientRenewProhibited
Domain Status: clientTransferProhibited https://icann.org/epp#clientTransferProhibited
Domain Status: clientUpdateProhibited https://icann.org/epp#clientUpdateProhibited
Name Server: NS1.LINODE.COM
Name Server: NS2.LINODE.COM
DNSSEC: unsigned
URL of the ICANN Whois Inaccuracy Complaint Form: https://www.icann.org/wicf/
>>> Last update of whois database: 2018-05-02T12:00:59Z <<<

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  REGISTRAR GoDaddy.com, LLC

SERVERS

  SERVER com.whois-servers.net

  ARGS domain =jacobgrier.com

  PORT 43

  TYPE domain

DOMAIN

  NAME jacobgrier.com

  CHANGED 2017-09-07

  CREATED 2001-09-07

STATUS
clientDeleteProhibited https://icann.org/epp#clientDeleteProhibited
clientRenewProhibited https://icann.org/epp#clientRenewProhibited
clientTransferProhibited https://icann.org/epp#clientTransferProhibited
clientUpdateProhibited https://icann.org/epp#clientUpdateProhibited

NSERVER

  NS1.LINODE.COM 162.159.27.72

  NS2.LINODE.COM 162.159.24.39

  REGISTERED yes

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